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| Thursday, 18 June 2020, 16:00 HKT/SGT | |
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香港, 2020年6月18日 - (亞太商訊) - 成實外教育(1565.HK)是中國西南地區最大的K12民辦教育集團，提供幼稚園到大學的綜合性民辦教育服務。公司是西南地區最負盛名的狀元搖籃之一，在西南地區辦學二十年。公司目前經營19所學校，包括在四川地區的17所K12學校、一所大學及位於美國加州的一所大學。
輕資產模式迅速佈局拓展學校網络。集團輕資產佈局新開學校在2020年至2021年達到高峰期，新校打開天花板的同時，半新校區提高利用率，學生人數增速受提振。集團將在2020年9月新開3個K12校區和1個大學校區，合共8個學段開始招生；2021年將會有6個新校區啟用，初步預計會有15個學段開始招生。在對新校區招生計劃相對保守的測算下，安捷證券預計公司旗下招生人數將在FY20E-FY22E維持在+15%/+18%/+15%的穩健增長。
強品牌效應促成定價優勢。在辦學二十年間，集團狀元搖籃的口碑在西南地區經久不衰，集團旗下學校的報讀人數遠超招生計劃。據公司統計，2019年公司旗下學校小升初及幼升小的錄取率僅在15%左右，學位供不應求給了公司較高的議價權。在管理方面，教師幹部內部管理培養形成體系，幫助公司在輕裝拓展的同時能夠維持良好的口碑。
FY20E受疫情一次性打擊，FY21E起恢復穩健增長。疫情影響2019/2020學年第二學期開學時間，食堂運營及住宿收入受影響、融資成本增加，安捷證券預計FY20E-FY22E公司總收入將達17.1億/22.2億/26.5億人民幣，對應增速為+15%/+30%/+19%，收入端波動主要由於疫情對FY20E業績造成一次性影響，同樣的，安捷證券預計FY20E利潤端增速受到成本端壓力亦將下滑，如FY21E保持正常增長預計利潤端增速將回彈。
估值。安捷證券採用現金流貼現(DCF)方法對公司進行估值，目標價港幣2.70元，對應14.3倍FY21E預測市盈率水平，首次覆蓋給予買入評級。
風險：1) 監管政策風險；2) 新校區招生情況不及預期；及3) 匯率風險。
話題 Press release summary
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