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| Monday, 25 May 2020, 18:08 HKT/SGT | |
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香港, 2020年5月25日 - (亞太商訊) - 安捷證券發表研報稱，1Q20A用戶及GMV增長大幅超預期。1Q20A拼多多實現營收65.4億元人民幣(下同)，同增+44%，優於安捷證券預期(60.12億元)及市場預期(48.8億元)，其中，來自線上營銷服務收入54.9億元，同增+39%，交易佣金收入10.5億元，同增+76%。公司一季度業績大幅增長主要得益於用戶及交易量的快速提升。1Q20A拼多多實現單季GMV 3,026億元，同增+99%；平台年活躍買家數達6.28億，較2019年底淨增加4,290萬人。受疫情平台對商戶廣告優惠政策影響，1Q20A線上營銷貨幣化率1.82%，環比下降0.8個百分點，且為近八個季度以來的最低，拉低公司整體貨幣化率至2.16%。公司Non-GAAP歸母淨利潤-31.7億元，較去年同期-13.8億元有所擴大。
海量社交流量快速沉澱，拼多多將充分享受後疫情時代的線上消費提速。得益於微信平台的高效社交流量導流及拼多多平台的強補貼政策，拼多多平台年活躍買家數達6.28億，已大幅超越京東3.87億，並與阿里的7.26億年活躍買家數差距進一步縮小，我們認為該差距有望在未來四個季度補齊。同時，拼多多平台單用戶年均消費金額1,842元。我們預計公司FY19A-FY22E GMV有約2倍增長空間，到FY22E GMV有望實現約3萬億。
安捷證券認為公司短期存在盈利壓力，但整體現金流水平仍較健康。由於公司目前仍處於流量快速擴張階段，1Q20A拼多多營銷費用合計73.0億元，佔收入比例112%，我們認為隨著公司用戶數的快速沉澱及經營槓桿的效應增強，營銷費用佔收入比例將逐步回落。但由於疫情影響，公司實現季度盈利時間點將可能延至2021年。
安捷證券上調拼多多評級至「長線買入」，上調目標價至80.0美金。以用戶基礎來看，拼多多作為國內第二大電商平台，得益於流量的快速沉澱及供應商生態的精細化運營，從邊際增量上看將是最大受益者，FY19A-FY22E收入複合增長有望達到41%。安捷證券上調公司評級至「長線買入」，上調目標價至80.0美金，對應10.2倍 2021E P/S, 74.4倍 2021E P/E(Non-GAAP)。
話題 Press release summary
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